JCPA�Israeli Security-Hizballah in Lebanon: The War Was Not Supposed to End This Way

JCPA�Israeli Security-Hizballah in Lebanon: The War Was Not Supposed to End This Way

Interesting by Fletcher professor Chuck Freilich.

Main points paint a tough road ahead for Israel. Questions such as will an international force be a detriment for Israel raise important questions that need immediate answers.

• Israel is not better off strategically than it was at the beginning of the war; this in itself is a Hizballah victory. Israel must prepare to win the next round decisively.

• The IDF knew that Hizballah could not be defeated without a major ground operation: its plan did not fail - it was never implemented. The failure was primarily of leadership: only go to war with clear objectives and the determination to prevail.

• The IDF ostensibly applied the initially brilliant U.S. strategy in Iraq - an aerial blitz against military targets and civil infrastructure, to crush the Iraqi system, followed by a decisive ground offensive. In reality, Israel did not launch the follow-on ground operation and, except for transportation, did not target Lebanon's infrastructure either.

• Israel must adopt and aggressively implement a realistic deterrent posture, with clear "red lines." Hizballah attacks, even attempts to redeploy, should cause an immediate and overwhelming response. Israel, not Hizballah, must have escalation dominance.

• Lebanese and international forces will do little to ensure security and will end up as a cover for ongoing Hizballah operations, hampering Israel's freedom of movement. Hizballah will neither disarm nor redeploy from the south. Another round is likely.

• The West Bank consolidation is now virtually dead and with it any prospects for the "peace process." Only a serious, dramatic Arab initiative can save it. Once again, the Palestinians and their radical allies have been their own worst enemy.

• Iran remains the primary issue - imagine this war just a few years from now: a nuclear umbrella for Hizballah, threats to Israel's existence, an international crisis. The good news: Iran exposed its Hizballah deterrent prematurely; Israel learned it can survive Hizballah rocket attacks, an important lesson if Iran is attacked in the future; the world was given a "wake-up call."

• A revitalized U.S.-Israel strategic dialogue is more vital than ever.